NVAR Region 2024 Residential Real Estate Market Forecast Mid-Year Update

 

While both the residential and commercial continue to stabilize, the region’s real estate market still has not reached a post-pandemic equilibrium. The inflation rate has continued to slow, with core inflation declining steadily since September 2022. Additionally, the national labor market has remained stronger than anticipated. While hopes of a soft-landing remain, there are continued signs of weakness

Northern Virginia July 2024 home sales increased by 13.5% from last July providing more optimism in a year marked by ups and downs. Contributing to the growth, inventory increased…

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2023 Northern Virginia Home Sales Down Overall from Previous Year but Lowering Rates Point to a Better 2024, Reports NVAR

December Continued Trends—Sales and Inventory Low

 

FAIRFAX, Va. (January 12, 2024) – Like December, 2023 Northern Virginia home sales overall declined from 2022, driven by high mortgage rates and scarce inventory, while prices continued to climb. The forecast for 2024 is looking up as declining mortgage rates are expected to bring some relief

“December home sales data reflects much of the whole year as real estate continues to seek a new normal following the pandemic,” explained NVAR Board President Thai-Hung Nguyen

Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate Premier. “We anticipate that 2024 will bring more choices as lower…

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Northern Virginia Housing Market Moderated in October, Reports NVAR Slightly More Inventory Seen as Positive Sign 

FAIRFAX, Va. (November 14, 2023) – Northern Virginia home sales declined only 5.6% while prices rose 3.1% from the previous October, showing more moderation than recent months, reported the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR)

“We saw a few promising signs in October. Declines in home sales were less dramatic this past month while supply grew, inching closer to the five-year average. This means that homebuyers had more choices than a year ago. If mortgage rates dip, we will likely see more activity since buyers and sellers have both been waiting for better rates,” explained NVAR Board Member Arshia Kia with KW Metro…

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Forecasted Shifts Occur in Northern Virginia Housing Market: May Reflects Declines in Sales and Inventory, Says NVAR    Prices Hold Steady Compared to Previous Year   FAIRFAX, Va. (June 13, 2023) – Northern Virginia home sales were down 24.9% compared to May 2022, as home values remained strong but inventory lacked. Mortgage rates have receded slightly from recent spikes, and sales increased 27.3% in May compared to April 2023, showing expected strength during what is traditionally the busiest time of the year, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR).    “The environment may be different than a year ago, but we are still selling homes,” said NVAR Board Member Colleen Wright. “The small decrease in mortgage…

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Home Sales are Down but Prices Remain Steady in Northern Virginia   FAIRFAX, VA (May 11, 2023) – Northern Virginia home sales remained muted in April, declining 33.6% from April 2022, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR). The year-over-year decline is in line with previous months. While closed sales were down compared with April 2022, closed sales increased 3.6% from March.   “It’s reassuring to see the subtle increase in sales activity month over month. Annual trends suggest that demand rises in the spring and this year is no exception,” says NVAR CEO, Ryan McLaughlin. “Furthermore, what we see is consistent with recent trends over the past few months – there are less sales happening now than this time last year,…

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Outlook is Good as Northern Virginia March Homes Sales Jump More than 38% from February Despite Decline from Last Year, Says NVAR   Inventory Low and Prices Up as Region Enters Spring Market   FAIRFAX, Va. (April 14, 2023) – Northern Virginia home sales increased 38.4% in March, compared to February 2023 signaling that the spring market is coming on strong, as expected with seasonal trends. The optimism prevails despite sales dropping 32.1% compared to March 2022 as the market continues to return to pre-pandemic norms, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR).    “The growth from February is part of our seasonal cycle. Spring market is traditionally hot, and we are seeing lots of interest in buying homes.…

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How Much Did Home Prices Cool Last Year?

  In 2021, home prices set a record. According to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, they were 19 percent higher than they were the year before. That was the largest annual home price gain in the 35-history of S&P's index. Last year, though, prices slowed, and with S&P's latest release we know just how much. The index found that, after peaking in June, home prices ended the year up 5.8 percent from the previous year.   Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P, says prices started cooling halfway through 2022. “The cooling in home prices that began in June 2022 continued through year end, as December marked the sixth consecutive month of declines for our National Composite Index,” Lazzara…

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NVAR Reports that Northern Virginia January Home Sales Down but Pending Home Sales Rose 14%
Good Signs that Sales Heading Up for Spring

  FAIRFAX, Va. (February 15, 2023) – Northern Virginia home sales declined in January, dropping 33.6% compared to January 2022, but in a good sign, pending sales grew 14% from the month prior, reversing an eight-month skid, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR).     “Pending home sales indicate an increase in market activity,” explained NVAR Board Member Peter Bixby, Compass Realty. “This growth is a positive sign. The buyers and sellers I work with are motivated and adjusting to higher mortgage rates.”   Despite lower sales activity, the average days on the market in…

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Housing News   More Home Sellers Offer Buyers Concessions   When the housing market was at its peak, home sellers had the advantage. It was common for a homeowner with an attractive listing to receive multiple offers from interested buyers. Put simply, it was a sellers' market. These days, things have obviously changed. Higher mortgage rates and more challenging affordability conditions mean home sellers have to work a little harder to entice potential buyers. It is leading more of them to offer buyers concessions.   But what are concessions? Well, they can be a lot of things, including mortgage rate buy-downs and covering closing costs or the cost of home repairs. They are becoming more common as the market begins to find better…

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2023 NVAR Region 2023 Residential Market Forecast

  The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR), in conjunction with the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University (GMU-CRA), issues a consensus forecast for the NVAR region’s housing market. The association convenes a panel of key experts from differing sectors of the real estate industry to review preliminary forecasts developed by GMU-CRA economists and offer their insights into current and near-future market conditions. The following represents the forecast team’s outlook for 2023   This forecast arrives at a time of market upheaval caused by a rapid acceleration of mortgage rates since the spring of 2022 as the Federal Reserve Bank aggressively increases interest…

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