Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax County Home Sales Projections to Watch through January, 2018 Cited, Reports the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® and GMU’s Center For Regional Analysis
Fairfax – The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors®, along with the GMU- Center for Regional Analysis, announces its new housing market forecast for median prices, number of sales and inventory for Fairfax and Arlington counties and the city of Alexandria through January 2018.

“Housing trends are up in Fairfax County,” said Dr. Terry Clower, Director of George Mason’s Center for Regional Analysis. “Based on new forecasts, by year’s end, we will see year-over-year improvements in prices -- up 5.8 percent, units sold – up 3.1 percent, and even a rebound in inventory – by 6 percent. The market will continue to improve through next year.

“Arlington County’s housing market will show significant improvements over the next 12 months in sales -- 6.5 percent increase, but recent trends suggest an even stronger gain in inventory -- up 8.9 percent -- helping to relieve current market pressures, Clower continued. “As a result, prices will rise, but at a more modest pace than what we have seen over the past year.”

Clower explained that the Alexandria housing market will present its own challenges but that the spring 2018 market could show clear signs of improvement. “Recent downward trends in for-sale units will reverse, with inventories rising to levels not seen since 2015, up more than 20 percent in May 2018,” he said. According to Clower, sales could rise as much as 3.6 percent as more buyers find homes in Alexandria, with an average price boost of up to 4.9 percent.

Substantial changes in local labor market conditions due to federal budget issues are not determining factors in Clower’s current analysis.

April Market Data

"Recent downward trends in for-sale units will reverse, with inventories rising to levels not seen since 2015, up more than 20 percent in May 2018,”

“In spite of our lean number of existing and new listings in April, our region still saw a nearly 4 percent rise in new under contracts, with 793 buyers deciding to enter into a contract versus 762 buyers in April 2016,” said NVAR Chairman of the Board Bob Adamson.\

“We know that the looming rise in interest rates could incentivize buyers to commit now,” he said. “The fact that rates may rise bodes well for our economy and buyer confidence.” Household income and an improving job market are factors favoring an active real estate market, he explained.

“We know that many millennials, as first-time buyers, are now looking to become homeowners,” said NVAR CEO Ryan Conrad. “We always recommend that buyers do their homework: create a sustainable household budget and obtain their pre-approval letter.

“Lower interest rates still present a great advantage in that first time homebuyers can get more for the mortgage dollar with existing rates,” Conrad explained.  “People buy homes to be a long-term investment, he said. “New buyers need to be qualified, prepared and first in line,” he advised.

April 2017 Regional Home Sales Compared to April 2016: Northern Virginia

The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® reports on April 2017 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

A total of 1,996 homes sold in April 2017, a 1 percent increase above April 2016 home sales of 1,973.

Active listings decreased in April compared with 2016. Listings were down about 20 percent below last year’s, with 4,109 active listings, compared with 5,125 homes available in April 2016. The average days on market (DOM) for homes in April 2017 was 36 days, a decrease of 25 percent compared to the 48 DOM for homes in April 2016.

The average home sale price rose to $574,767 compared to last April. This is up 3.75 percent compared to April 2016, when the average price was $553,981.

The median sold price of homes this April, which was $515,000, rose by 5 percent compared to the median price of $490,000 in April 2016.

The 2,577 new pending home sales in Northern Virginia in April marks a decrease of 3.59 percent compared with 2,673 new contracts that were pending in April last year. Total pending sales in April were down by 2.45 percent, to 3,499, compared with 3,587 pending contracts in



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